OBUSA Growth Engine Investment Model v5

Built on the 2027 budget draft and the 2027 personnel allocation. Every number is editable. The Summit Fund is OBUSA's unrestricted giving pool — the renamed Annual Fund — and a portion is deployed each year as open enrollment scholarship where the impact is strongest.

SCENARIO
Start here
Engine overview
Definitions
Student impact
Segment reach
Summit Fund
Scale & capacity
Sustainability
Simulator
Reconciliation

What this tool is for

Read this once. Five minutes and you have the whole model.

OBUSA has eight ways of bringing money in. They are not comparable on a revenue line alone, because each one keeps a different share of the dollar, takes a different amount of staff time, and produces a different kind of growth. This tool puts all eight on the same terms so the Leadership Team can decide where to add people, where to hold, and where to stop — and see the consequence immediately.

The core mechanic. Change any blue number and every total, chart and verdict in the tool updates instantly. Nothing is locked. If you disagree with an assumption, change it and look at what happens.

How to use it, in five steps

Follow these in order the first time through

Look at the number strip at the top

It never moves. Seven figures: total staff, personnel cost, total cost to run, gross revenue, what OBUSA keeps, net to OBUSA, and what passes through to Schools. Net to OBUSA is the headline — it is retained revenue plus fee or grant recovery, minus the full cost of running the engine.

Go to Engine overview and read one row

Each row is one engine. Left to right: how many staff, what they cost, what else it costs to run, what it brings in, and how that dollar splits. Pick the row you know best and check whether it looks right. If it does not, change it — that is the point.

Change one number and watch the strip

Click any blue cell, type a new figure, press Enter. The whole model recalculates. The percent pass-through column is the one to test first — it is the single most consequential assumption in the portfolio.

Press a scenario button

The six buttons at the top load a pre-built set of changes. They are conversation starters, not recommendations. Press Reset to return to the 2027 budget draft at any time.

Use Simulator to test a hire

Pick an engine, add or remove FTE, set what you think that person can bring in and how long they take to ramp. You get a three-year answer and the year it turns positive. Use negative FTE to test a cut.

The Export button saves the current scenario as a file, so an edited version can be circulated rather than re-created.

What each tab answers

Engine overviewAll the working assumptions, all editable. The main workspace.
DefinitionsWhat each engine actually is, who owns it, and the Program Partnerships versus National Groups distinction.
Student impactHow many young people each engine reaches, and what that costs.
Segment reachPublic and charter versus independent schools. Where the volume is versus where the model currently works.
Summit FundThe unrestricted giving pool, and the scholarship deployment decision each year.
Scale & capacityWhere current staff run out of road, and what each engine must earn to cover itself.
SustainabilityWhat survives if the grants go away.
SimulatorTest one hire, or one cut, over three years.
ReconciliationHow the model ties back to the 2027 budget, and where it does not.

Reading the color codes

sourcedComes straight from the 2027 budget draft or the personnel allocation. Argue with it only if the file is wrong.
allocatedA real budget line split across engines. These are the judgment calls worth challenging.
needs inputNot in either file. Someone owns this number.

And the signals

Room to growUnder 85% of what current staff can carry.
At the ceiling85% or more. The next dollar needs a person, not a target.
Over capacityPast the ceiling. Something is being dropped.

Five things to know before you argue

Net to OBUSA is not a scoreboard. Two engines are designed to return zero. Open Enrollment is net-zero on purpose and that is settled. Regional Groups is grant-funded to create revenue for Schools. Neither is failing.
The Summit Fund is the unrestricted pool, not a scholarship line. It is the renamed Annual Fund and it sits inside engine P3. Scholarship is one deployment of it, decided each year — not the whole purpose of the fund.
One Account Manager sits behind two engines. Brand Partnerships and Program Partnerships share Kristina Stockburger. Renewals are annual and non-deferrable, so they win the calendar by default. That split is editable on Engine overview and it moves both engines at once.
$473,918 is deliberately unassigned. That is the 710 Marketing department, 3.35 FTE of shared brand, web, lifecycle and social capacity that serves everything. How it gets charged is an LT decision, so spreading it quietly would have pre-decided it.
The backdrop is a $1.58M operating loss. The 2027 draft is not balanced. Every choice here is being made against that.

The six questions this is built to force

Working assumptions by engine

Every blue cell is editable. Pass-through calculates from the OBUSA share.
sourced from the 2027 files   allocated a real budget line split across engines   needs input not present in either file

Net contribution to OBUSA

Retained revenue plus fee or grant recovery, less full cost

Where the revenue goes

Gross revenue split between OBUSA and Schools
Retained by OBUSA Passed through to Schools

Staff and personnel expense

From the 2027 personnel allocation: 34.00 FTE, $4,666,616 total comp

Non-personnel expense

Marketing plus operations and other direct costs

Program Partnerships versus National Group Programs

Both involve an institution writing a large check. The difference is whose people go on the course.
The one-question test

Ask: whose people are on the course? If the payer is funding programming for someone else's young people, it is a Program Partnership — philanthropic intent, restricted contributed revenue. If the payer is buying programming for their own people, it is a National Group Program — commercial intent, earned fee-for-service.

All eight engines — owner and accountability

Brand Partnerships and Program Partnerships sit under the Chief Development Officer.
What the move to Development changes. Both partnership engines report to Julia Farmer rather than the CMO. Two consequences worth naming. First, the overlap between Institutional Giving and Program Partnerships is now an internal Development question — same house, same pipeline, far easier to stop counting one dollar twice. Second, the shared Account Manager constraint moves inside Development too, so the decision about whether Kristina drives renewals or new business is now Julia's to make, not a cross-departmental negotiation.

Scale of student experience by engine

Engines marked Enabling produce unrestricted dollars that fund the platform rather than a countable cohort. Attributing students to them would double-count.

Students reached by engine

Direct, attributable student experiences

How to think about unrestricted dollars

Who we actually reach through group programs

2025 published Group Programs by Type, OBUSA Annual Course Data Report. All figures editable.
The gap this exposes. Regional Group Programs is currently aimed at independent schools, and the economics justify that — independent schools go 63% deeper per student and the school pays, so there is margin and no family fundraising. But independent schools are only 14% of who we serve. Public and charter is 59%, roughly four times larger, and it is growing at a comparable rate. The current go-to-market strategy is correct on unit economics and silent on the majority of our reach.

Students by segment

2025 volume

Depth by segment

Average student program days per student — the metric that drives revenue

Why public and charter growth is a fundraising question, not a sales question

The structural difference. An independent school pays for the program out of its own budget. A public or charter school generally cannot, so the same program has to be underwritten — by a national funder, a regional donor, a district line item, or a public funding stream such as Title IV-A or MTSS. The sale is the same. The money comes from somewhere completely different.

What that means for the engine model. Scaling public and charter does not scale Regional Group Programs on its own. It scales Institutional Giving and Program Partnerships at the same time, because every additional public-school program needs a funder attached to it. Growth in one engine creates an obligation in another.

The compounding cost. More public and charter volume means more dollars to raise, which means more grant-writing and reporting load on a Development team already carrying 16.9% of payroll on two grants. That is a real constraint, not a rounding error.

Why it is still worth doing. Public and charter is where the mission argument is strongest and where the audience is largest. It is also the segment where the Summit Fund matters most: for these families the follow-on open enrollment course is a scholarship conversation rather than a purchase. Depth is the weak spot — 1.51 program days per student against 2.46 for independent — so the opportunity is as much about going deeper with existing partners as adding new ones.

The honest sequencing. Independent schools first is defensible because it is self-funding and proves the go-to-market machine works. But the LT should decide explicitly whether public and charter is deferred or declined. Right now it is neither, which means it quietly does not happen.

The decision to take to the room

If public and charter growth is a goal, name the funding vehicle that pays for it and the person who raises it — before setting a participation target. A target without a funder attached becomes a Development problem discovered in year two.

The Summit Fund — OBUSA's unrestricted giving pool

The renamed Annual Fund. It is not a scholarship fund; it is the unrestricted pool, and scholarship is one deployment of it.
Read this first. The Summit Fund is the annual fund. Every unrestricted individual dollar raised — recurring gifts, campaign moments, alumni and parent giving — lands here, and it is the most flexible money OBUSA has. Each year a portion is deliberately deployed as open enrollment scholarship where the impact is strongest for OBUSA, for Schools, or for both. That deployment is a recurring intention, not a one-time pilot, but it is a decision made annually rather than a fixed obligation.

Where it sits in the model. The Summit Fund is the revenue of engine P3, not a separate line. Because it is unrestricted it can fund anything — operating costs, a capacity gap, a loss-making engine held on purpose, or scholarship. The scholarship slider below decides how much of the pool goes to access in a given year.

Why the distinction matters for this model. If the Summit Fund were only a scholarship fund, it would be a restricted pass-through and would belong beside P1. Because it is unrestricted, it is one of only three engines that returns a fully retained dollar, and it is the flexible money that absorbs everything the restricted dollars cannot.

The deployment argument. Scholarship competes with every other use of an unrestricted dollar. It earns its share when it protects tuition revenue, converts families who would not otherwise enroll, or stabilizes a program line under pressure. That is exactly what the calculator below is for.

How the scholarship deployment works. Administered nationally by the Customer Success team using a standardized, equity-centered framework. Eligibility is household income below $250,000, domestic courses only, with a $150 non-refundable application fee replacing the standard $500 deposit. Three tiers — Trailhead ($175–250K), Ascent ($100–175K), Summit (below $100K) — award a percentage of average tuition by program line. Awards typically cover 20–60% of tuition and can stack with regional School scholarships.

Why it matters strategically. Open enrollment is flat, shorter courses are eroding student program days, and families are deciding later with higher demonstrated need. Scholarship deployment is the one lever that addresses affordability at the point of decision without cutting list price across the board. It lets us compete on a family's first experience, where the price objection is sharpest.

And for the segment problem. Public and charter families are 59% of group-program reach and the follow-on OE course is a scholarship conversation for most of them. This is the bridge between the volume we already touch and the enrollment we do not convert.

The live opportunity. Whether Schools' regional scholarship funds could be distributed through the same mechanism — awarded at the point of decision rather than handed off. That would multiply the effect without raising another dollar.

Deploying the pool

How much of the unrestricted pool goes to scholarship this year, and what the rest is free to do
Mirrors P3 gross revenue on the Engine overview tab.
2026 pilot deployed $100,000. The rest of the pool stays unrestricted.

Tuition protected calculator

The metric the year-one review asked for and could not answer: how much tuition revenue did the scholarship deployment protect? Every input is editable.
Calculated from the pool and share above.
Year one: $93,247 across 36 students = $2,590 average.
Published range is 20–60%.
Year one measured 77%.
Share going to already-enrolled students. Year one was 27%.
What cost-motivated leads would have done anyway. No baseline exists — this is the missing number.
Read the incremental line, not the gross line. The 77% enrollment rate has no comparison point, so the honest figure is the difference between the award rate and what those families would have done anyway. Set the counterfactual to 77% and the incremental value goes to zero. That is not a flaw in the deployment — it is the measurement gap, and it is the single highest-value thing to fix before scaling.

Year one — what happened and what to fix

Measured

Scholarship awarded$93,247
Students supported36
Average award$2,590
Enrollment rate after award77%
Decision speed1.5 days
Already-enrolled backstop12 students, 27% of funds
Sample size of 36 is too small to claim anything about cancellation risk. Worth stating plainly rather than implying the data says more than it does.

Fixes identified for year two

1. Move award notification earlier — to January, before Customer Success is swamped. Identified as the biggest lever on enrollment speed.

2. Eliminate the backstop use case. Covering students who already enrolled absorbed 27% of the deployment and conflates two different stories: access versus bailouts. The donor promise is converting new families.

3. Build the baseline. Capture what cost-motivated leads did before the fund existed — abandonment, time to decide, conversion. Without it, 77% means nothing.

4. Report tuition revenue protected. The multiplier donors care about, and the calculator above exists to produce it.

5. Scope to tuition only. Travel and gear create a management tangle without the capacity to handle it.

6. Fix the scholarship application form and the confusion Student Services flagged.

Where staff run out of road

Ceiling is FTE multiplied by the revenue one FTE can carry. Both are editable.

Capacity utilization

Gross against the ceiling implied by today's staffing

Break-even gross revenue

What an engine must generate before its OBUSA share covers its cost

What survives without volatile grant funding

The personnel allocation shows $786,905 of comp — 16.9% of payroll — on two grants: AAO $533,284 and Lilly $253,620.
Secure Grant-dependent

Grant dependence by engine

Editable. This is the input that makes the stress test honest.

Test an investment

Add or remove capacity. Negative FTE tests a cut.
2027 average across 34 FTE is $137,253
Months

Year by year

Marginal net to OBUSA

Engine model against the 2027 budget draft

Variance is not necessarily an error — it usually means a line is recognized somewhere I could not see.

The budget position

Personnel by department

2027 personnel allocation, 34.00 FTE, $4,666,616